For Third Consecutive Month, Single-Family Home Sales Rise

Arizona hard money

In May, the sales of newly built, single-family homes rose for a third consecutive month posting a 2.1 percent gain to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 476,000 units, according to data released by HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau. From our calculations, since July of 2008, this is the fastest sales pace recorded. Whoo-hoo! We love to report that there’s an increase demand for builders to actually build new homes. Probably because these home-buyers want to take advantage of historically low mortgage rates while they can. Rick Judson, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and a home builder from Charlotte, N.C. said basically the same thing and added, "Consumers in markets nationwide are definitely becoming more confident about making a home purchase as firming prices and tighter inventories provide further evidence of the ongoing housing recovery."

So to go on, three out of four regions posted sales gains in May, with double-digit increases of 20.7 percent and 40.7 percent in the Northeast and Midwest, respectively, and a more moderate, 3.6 percent gain in the West. The South posted a 9.0 percent decrease following an unsustainably large gain in the previous month.

Robert Denk, NAHB Senior Economist, goes on to explain, "Today's report confirms that the improvement we have been seeing in housing markets over the past year continues to take place at a gradual and steady pace. We expect to see more of this positive momentum in the coming months, tempered by the caution that builders are exercising to avoid getting ahead of demand along with ongoing constraints they face with regard to the availability of credit, materials, lots and labor."

We love being able to tell you that home-builders and new homes are in demand. As people get excited about the economy, we hope this trend continues.

Arizona Hard Money

Level 4 Funding LLC

23335 N 18th Drive Suite 120

Phoenix AZ 85027

623-582-4444

Fed Policy Uncertainty, Mortgage Rates Ease Back Slightly to 3.93 Percent.

Arizona hard money

Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) results have been released and it appears that these stats show average fixed mortgage rates moving slightly lower as markets awaited the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement.

Frank Nothaft is the vice president and chief economist of Freddie Mac and he explained, "Mortgage rates were relatively unchanged this week as market participants awaited the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement.”

He goes on to say, “The Fed stated that economic growth has been expanding at a moderate pace and that labor market conditions have shown further improvement, although the unemployment rate remains elevated.” This is something we have stated before in a previous blog, but that financial experts are at the very least, optimistic about the future. Nothaft goes on to say, “It noted inflation has been running below the Fed's longer-run objective as well. As a result, the Fed will continue its bond-buying program at the current pace and maintain its highly accommodative monetary policy stance."

Meanwhile, he five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.79 percent with an average 0.5 point, which is the same as last week. However, a year ago, the five-year ARM averaged 2.77 percent. The one-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.57 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.58 percent. At this time last year, the one-year ARM averaged 2.74 percent.

Nothaft reassures us, "The Fed also affirmed that the housing sector has strengthened further.” On example of this is that -family housing permits increased nearly two percentage points in May. Nothaft says that means we’re at, “an annualized pace of 649,000 homes, the most since May 2008. In addition, homebuilder confidence in June rose to its highest reading since March 2006."

It looks as though things are starting to look up. The more confident people are in the housing market, the more apt they will be to buying that new house and starting that new life by taking that new job. It’s time we all get our feet back on the ground.

Arizona Hard Money

Level 4 Funding LLC

23335 N 18th Drive Suite 120

Phoenix AZ 85027

623-582-4444

Mortgage Rates Continue to Slide to Four Percent

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Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 14, 2013 reported that mortgage applications decreased 3.3 percent from just the week prior. The Market Composite Index, which is a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, additionally from one week earlier. When on an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased four percent when compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased three percent from the previous week. Moreover, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased three percent from one week earlier and the unadjusted Purchase Index decreased four percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

That’s a lot to take in!

Meanwhile, the refinance share of mortgage activity was unchanged and stayed at 69 percent of total applications from the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, share of activity was also unchanged and stayed at seven percent of total applications. For the past two week, the government share of purchase applications has been at 29 percent.

For a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with conforming loan balances of $417,500 or less, the average contract rate increased to 4.17 percent from 4.15 percent, which is the highest it has been since March 2012.

For a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with jumbo loan balances of $417,500 or more, the average contract rate decreased to 4.23 percent from 4.25 percent, with points increasing to 0.34 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.

However, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 3.85 percent, the highest rate since April 2012, from 3.81 percent, with points decreasing to 0.22 from 0.26 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTVs. The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.30 percent from 3.32 percent, with points increasing to 0.39 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTVs. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 2.81 percent, the highest rate since June 2012, from 2.78 percent, with points increasing to 0.35 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTVs. The effective rate increased from last week.

Arizona Hard Money

Level 4 Funding LLC

23335 N 18th Drive Suite 120

Phoenix AZ 85027

623-582-4444

What You Need to Know So Far About the Dodd-Frank Act

Arizona hard money

A committee of industry experts met recently to discuss the qualified mortgage rule before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit. Maybe that sounds a little scary to you because you didn’t know this was happening, but don’t let this worry you as a future home-buyer. These experts were meeting to talk about the fact that certain borrowers were being excluded from the lending system due to poorly-defined rules established in the Dodd-Frank Act, and they wanted to fix it so that everyone had a fair chance of buying a home. There needs to be a financial system for low and moderate income households. It’s the only way we can boost our economy and get back to recovery and then prosperity.

But back to why you thought this talk about the Frank-Dodd could be scary- Back in January, U.S. News and World Report put together 10 ways Dodd-Frank will hurt the economy in 2013. Now that we are in 2013, it does seem like at least some of these predictions are actually happening. Part of the issue with Dodd-Frank is due to the following reasons:

►Fees paid to affiliated (but not unaffiliated) title companies

►Amounts of homeowner’s insurance held in escrow

►Loan level price adjustments (LLPAs)

►Payments by lenders to correspondent banks and mortgage brokers in wholesale transactions.

These pieces of the Dodd-Frank act appear mischievous, essentially creating havoc for mortgage professions that they most certainly do not need.

Gary Thomas, president of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), testified at this Dodd-Frank meetings stating, “As a result of this problematic definition, many loans made by affiliates, particularly those made to low-and moderate-income borrowers, would not qualify as QMs.” What does that means? It means that these loans would be unlikely to even be made or would only be available at higher rates due to heightened liability risks.

It isn’t easy to find a supporter of the Dodd-Frank Act right now.

Arizona Hard Money

Level 4 Funding LLC

23335 N 18th Drive Suite 120

Phoenix AZ 85027

623-582-4444

The end of what we knew or a new beginning

Arizona hard money

In the most recent months, the U.S. economy has demonstrated numerous signs of improvement in property values, home building and a leveling off of unemployment–at ‘new normal levels’ that we can begin to enjoy and relax about. We are happy to report that it, luckily, isn’t getting worse. We are finally recovering. Sure we have some definite challenges coming up, but we are excited that the United States is beginning to see some change- and they are all positive.

We are beginning to believe that the year 2013 could lead to some great job opportunities and a relatively strong job creation in the private sector. Additionally, auto sales will be strong, home sales will continue to climb back, corporate profits and cash balances will remain high and rates are assured to be low through the next two years–these all paint an optimistic picture. However, the fiscal cliff, all uncertainty in the Middle East in connection with the commodity of oil, the possible economic collapse of the European Union and the consequences of inevitable tax increases in the future will hang over this optimism. There’s always something.

Of course, we know that in reality, we can’t predict the future, we can only surmise. This is of course a challenge to economists, business owners and consumers alike who are just trying to make the most of their information before they make a move. It just depends on negations around the federal budget go down. Depending on a number of factors, it could help or hinder the housing market. We just have to watch and wait and see.

While we know the market won’t be at quite what it was in 2006, we are confident that it is growing stronger every year. We are seeing more construction and more consumer confidence, which means that the home market will se it fairly soon after. We can only hope.

Arizona Hard Money

Level 4 Funding LLC

23335 N 18th Drive Suite 120

Phoenix AZ 85027

623-582-4444

What Your Credit Score Has to do With Your Kitchen Sink

Arizona hard money

Everyone knows that the housing market is still only 30 percent of what it was in 2006 and this fact is heavily influenced by the 23 million potential workers being unemployed, a drop in household income, personal net worth, and an uncertain future for even those who are lucky enough to be employed.

These uncertain times can have people worried, but the good news is the housing market is not a boom- it is recovering- slowly- but it is recovering. And because it is recovering slowly, it is recovering well. This means the recovery will be more effective and offer better incentives to encourage a broader ‘credit net’ for borrowers who have good jobs, but have margin credit. The issue isn’t availability of loan programs, there are plenty of those. What it is about is about the availability of loans programs to those who can actually qualify for them.

There is some tough credit criteria that people have to live up to, and that’s suppressing home ownership. While this could be fixed with a proper understanding of the mortgage/banking industries, it simply is not happening.

Over-regulation or forcing banks to accommodate this is not going to yield the intended results and right now, forty percent of borrowers cannot get loans since the average consumer has a FICO of a 640 while the average FICO of the closed loan in October was 762.

As you can see, this is a significant number disparity between what the market is demanding and what the actual numbers seem to be.  Clearly, homeownership is in the best interest of all consumers at proportionate levels of income, versus what the market will actually offer.

This could mean that credit is about to be a little less restrictive as the administration is not pro-homeownership at all. In fact, they are they opposite; they are pro-tenting. This is an example of a powerful and true evaluation of where the political and economic landscapes appear to collide. While it is true that the FHA has done an effective job in providing broader opportunities, it can be said that there are still significant fiscal problems at FHA that will require a tax payer bailout to address a $16.3billion deficit. As one can expect, this will require a federal bailout and rather than a private sector solution, the spiral will unfortunately continue with further Federal oversight and involvement in an already heavily regulated industry.

Arizona Hard Money

Level 4 Funding LLC

23335 N 18th Drive Suite 120

Phoenix AZ 85027

623-582-4444

Builders: Looking to 2013 and the Big, Bright Future of the Housing Market

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As mentioned in an earlier blog, home prices across the nation are rising as it joins the rest of the nation in a recovery –albeit slowly- economy.

How is this happening, you might ask. NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe claims the following points are helping this economy along:

►Pent-up household formations

►Rising consumer confidence

►Increasing builder confidence in all three legs of the industry: Remodeling, multifamily and single-family construction;

►Growing rental demand

►More than 100 metros currently on the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index

Crowe also says that NAHB is forecasting a 21 percent increase in single-family starts this year to 665,000 units in 2013. The 2015 housing market and the push for new construction will definitely help when it comes to employment rates across the country as well by 2015. Job growth by 2014 will most likely go from two million per year to closer to three million in 2014 and 2015.

It’s important to keep the optimism going, it will help the market if people truly believe that we are on the way to recovery. When the economy goes up, people feel better and when people feel better and they’re financially secure, they are more apt to buy that dream home they’ve been thinking about.

Moreover, remember that this market and optimism will also be driven by the Federal Reserve’s role in keeping mortgages rates low through 2015, operating under assumption that banks will take advantage of near zero lending rates from the ‘window’ and turn this around to broadening qualifying requirements.

Remember, however, that banks, are still recovering from losses from the bust, so it is unlikely that this will occur to the extent that would do us well, if at all, which could turn the optimistic forecast we just reported on. Be on the lookout. As it is, it seems relatively unlikely that banks will be interested in reducing margins any time soon so that they can instead wait for more certain business conditions instead of these optimistic market conditions. Whatever does happen, the one thing for sure is that the housing recovery isn’t going to be growing without a great deal of effort by policy makers, bankers and real estate agencies.

Arizona Hard Money

Level 4 Funding LLC

23335 N 18th Drive Suite 120

Phoenix AZ 85027

623-582-4444